Market Speaks: Global grain production seen at 2404 million tonnes on sharp revision in US maize yields

International Grains Council or IGC stated in a latest monthly update that at 2,404 million (m) tonnes(t), the 2025/26 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast is raised by 27m m/m (month-on-month). The unusually sharp revision mainly reflects upgraded US maize area and yield projections, but with relatively smaller increases too, for wheat, sorghum and oats. Changes to grains use absorb more than half of the supply gain, including increases for feed and industrial uptake. With larger supply compared to the July GMR, and also taking account of bigger opening inventories, the projection for global closing stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is up by 16 mt m/m, to 597m. The outlook for trade (Jul/Jun) is also lifted by 7 mt, to 437 mt.

With a marginally reduced outlook for US production more than offset by uprated outlooks for others, the 2025/26 world soyabean output projection is raised slightly, to 430 mt, up by 1% y/y (year-on-year); the net m/m gain in availabilities is channelled to increased figures for consumption and stocks. Trade is seen 1 mt higher than in July, at a new peak (+2% y/y). The 2024/25 rice supply and demand balance sheet is broadly unchanged m/m, with stocks seen rising by around 7 mt y/y, chiefly on solid gains in India. Similarly, there are few changes to projections for 2025/26, with record supplies and consumption tentatively anticipated. Owing to a marginally reduced carry-in, aggregate inventories are trimmed by 1 mt m/m.

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