Economic Buzz: Effects of trade policy actions expected to become more evident in global activity over the remainder of year

Reserve Bank of Australia or RBA has stated in its latest monetary policy update today that Global GDP growth over the first half of the year was resilient to trade policy developments, and policy uncertainty has fallen back somewhat, though remains elevated. While recently announced US tariff rates have been higher than expected in May, other jurisdictions have ? as expected ? generally not retaliated, and the range of likely trade policy outcomes appears to have narrowed. These developments, coupled with rapid adjustment in global trade flows, suggest that some of the more extreme downside risks around the impact of tariffs on global activity are less likely to materialise, though significant uncertainty remains. The effects of trade policy actions are expected to become more evident in global activity and inflation data over the remainder of the year, particularly in the United States ? where there are signs the labour market is weakening. Some advanced economies have announced additional fiscal policy easing that will support near-term global growth.

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