Market Speaks: World refined copper production up 3% in first five-months of 2025

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for May world copper supply and demand in its July 2025 Copper Bulletin yesterday. Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production increased by about 2.7% over the first five months of 2025, with concentrate production increasing by 2.9% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) by 2.1 %. In the first five months of 2025, global mine production benefited from additional output from projects ramping up to capacity and an improvement in production at a number of operating mines. In Peru, copper mine production rose by 3% y-o-y mainly due to a significant increase at the Las Bambas and Toromocho mines that more than offset declines at the Cerro Verde, Antamina and Antapaccay operations.

Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production increased by about 3.1% during the first five months of 2025 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up to 3.2% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 2.8%. Production in China and the DRC, that currently represent about 56% of the world's total production, is estimated to have increased by a combined 5% (China +4.9% and DRC +5.2%). World refined copper production excluding these two countries rose by about 0.9%.

Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage grew by about 3.2% in the first five months of 2025. Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have grown by around 5.5%. Chinese net refined copper imports fell by 10% (refined copper imports declined by 4% and copper exports increased by 59%). China's share of total world refined copper usage is currently about 58%.

Over the first five months of 2025, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a preliminary surplus of about 272,000 t. This compares with a surplus of about 273,000 tonnes (t) in the same period of 2024.The world refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of about 305,000 t.

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