Indices likely to idle at the start, tracking choppy Asian signals

GIFT Nifty:

GIFT Nifty July 2025 futures were trading 3.50 points lower in early trade, suggesting a flat-to-negative opening for the Nifty 50.

Institutional Flows:

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,858.15 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,223.55 crore in the Indian equity market on 16 July 2025, provisional data showed.

According to NSDL data, FPIs have sold shares worth Rs 6809.93 crore in the secondary market during July 2025. This follows their purchase of shares worth Rs 8466.77 crore in June 2024.

Global Markets:

Most Asian indices declined on Thursday as investors digested Japan?s second straight monthly drop in exports and conflicting signals from U.S. President Donald Trump on monetary policy and trade.

Japan?s exports slipped 0.5% year-on-year in June, following a 1.7% fall in May, signaling continued weakness in external demand. Meanwhile, Trump denied plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, just hours after reportedly telling Republican lawmakers otherwise. The President added fuel to the trade uncertainty by reiterating a potential 25% tariff on Japanese imports, casting doubt on a comprehensive trade deal with Japan.

On the flip side, Singapore delivered a surprise. Its non-oil domestic exports surged 13% in June versus a year ago, sharply rebounding from a 3.9% drop in May. This marked the fastest growth since July 2024.

U.S. markets shrugged off the Powell drama. The Dow Jones rose 0.53%, the S&P 500 gained 0.32%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.26% as Trump told reporters he was ?not planning anything? regarding Powell?s removal, despite continuing to criticize the Fed chief for high interest rates and a pricey renovation of the Fed building.

Economic data brought a mixed bag. Producer prices in the U.S. remained flat in June on a monthly basis, with annual growth slowing to 2.3% from May?s 2.7%. However, consumer prices showed signs of heating up, rising 2.7% year-on-year in June compared to 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, inflation stood at 0.3%, matching expectations.

On Wall Street, Tesla shares climbed 3% after the EV giant announced plans to launch a six-seater Model Y this fall. Meanwhile, Global Payments surged 5% following reports that activist investor Elliott Management had taken a stake in the company.

Domestic Market:

Equity benchmarks ended with modest gains on Wednesday, with the Nifty closing above the 25,200 mark. PSU banks and IT stocks attracted buying interest, while metal and pharma shares faced selling pressure. However, sentiment remained cautious amid renewed concerns over rising U.S. inflation and lingering uncertainty over trade tariffs. The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 63.57 points or 0.08% to 82,634.48. The Nifty 50 index added 16.25 points or 0.06% to 25,212.05.

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