Market Speaks: OPEC says global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.3 million barrels per day

OPEC stated in its monthly oil market report that the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.3 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from last month’s assessment. Some minor adjustments were made, mainly due to actual data for 1Q25 and 2Q25. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d in 2025. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessments. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 is also unchanged at 0.7 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, averaging 8.6 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 349 tb/d in June, m-o-m, to average about 41.56 mb/d, according to available secondary source, OPEC noted.

Preliminary data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,771 mb in May, representing a m-o-m increase of 34.5 mb. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 14.3 mb and 20.1 mb, m-o-m, respectively. Compared to the 2015–2019 average, OECD commercial oil stocks were 184 mb lower.

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