Commodities Buzz: Global cereal production projected to grow at average annual rate of 1.1% over next nine years

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, out today, stated that global cereal production is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1% over next nine years, driven largely by a 0.9 percent annual increase in yields. Harvested area is projected to expand by just 0.14 percent annually, less than half the 0.33 percent rate of the previous decade.

By 2034, 40 percent of all cereals will be consumed directly by humans, while 33 percent will be used for animal feed. Biofuel production and other industrial uses are projected to account for the rest.

Global demand for biofuels is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent, driven primarily by increases in Brazil, India and Indonesia.
Sub-Saharan Africa illustrates the significant opportunities for a robust set of initiatives to improve productivity: the region’s beef cattle herd is three times larger than in North America and is projected to grow by 15 percent, while output per animal is only about one-tenth as high.

India and Southeast Asian countries are projected to account for 39 percent of global consumption growth by 2034, compared to 32 percent over the past decade, while China’s share is projected at 13 percent, down from 32 percent over the past decade.

The report noted that global production of agricultural and fish commodities is projected to expand by about 14 percent through to 2034, mainly enabled by productivity gains in middle-income countries. But this growth entails expanded animal herds and cropland areas. The medium-term projection anticipates a modest decline in average annual real agricultural commodity prices, reflecting ongoing average productivity improvements that lower production costs.

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