Market Speak: Geopolitical tensions lift oil, but oversupply to cap gains- July STEO

In its July 8 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration revised its Brent crude forecast for 2025 to $69 per barrel, up $3 from last month?s projection. The revision reflects a stronger geopolitical risk premium following mid-June tensions over Iran?s nuclear program. However, despite the near-term uplift, the EIA maintains a more bearish long-term view, forecasting Brent to average just $58 per barrel in 2026 due to expected global inventory builds. Notably, this forecast was completed before OPEC+ announced higher production targets for August, which slightly exceeded the assumptions used in the outlook.

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