Raw Sugar futures sink to four-year low, slide around 15% this year

Global Sugar futures extended their downside on expectations of a global sugar surplus. The benchmark Raw Sugar futures fell around 1% yesterday to approach 16.35 cents per pound. This is the lowest level in four-years for the counter and the futures are down 15% in 2025. The United States Department of Agriculture or USDA, has stated in its biannual report in last month that it projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by 4.7% year-over-year to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.

The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb 19% on year to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. According to the latest data, as on June 13, the sugarcane acreage edged up marginally by 0.34% to 55.07 lakh hectares.

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