Market Speak: US oil production to ease after record highs- June STEO

The US Energy Information Administration, in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook, expects US crude oil production to decline from a record 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2025 to around 13.3 million bpd by Q4 2026. The downward revision reflects a sharper-than-expected drop in active drilling rigs, with operators forecast to drill and complete fewer wells over the next two years. Annual output is now projected to average slightly above 13.4 million bpd in 2025 and just under that in 2026. Sluggish oil prices and oversupply concerns continue to weigh on drilling activity. The EIA?s latest forecast marks its third consecutive monthly downgrade for oil price expectations.

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