Commodities Buzz: Gold up 26% year to date, net managed money longs well off highs

World Gold Council or WGC stated in a latest update that Gold prices ended the month of May almost flat (-0.7%) at US$3,278, albeit with some intra-month volatility. Year-to-date, gold remains up a staggering 26%. WGC Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests that tariff-related policy risk, a rise in inflation expectations (both Risk and Uncertainty factors) and lagged follow-through from the dollar plunge in April contributed positively, while ETF outflows and the strong gold return in April (both Momentum factors) were drags on returns in May. ETF outflows of US$1.8 billion (-19 tonnes) were dominated by North America (-US$1.5 billion, -16 tonnes), on a pause in tariff tensions. Following a sizeable drop in COMEX managed money net longs in April, investors increased net positions slightly by the equivalent of US$0.5 billion (4 tonnes) in May. They remain well off the highs reached in December 2024 (35% net long as a % of open interest) sitting just above 13%.

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