Market Speaks: Global Crude oil inventories rising says IEA

The International Energy Agency or IEA has stated in a latest monthly update that global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use. Demand growth averages 740 kb/d in 2025 and 760 kb/d in 2026, despite accelerating OECD declines of -120 kb/d and -240 kb/d, respectively.

World oil supply looks on track to rise by 1.6 mb/d to 104.6 mb/d on average in 2025, and by an additional 970 kb/d in 2026. Non-OPEC+ producers are set to add 1.3 mb/d this year and 820 kb/d next year, even as US Light Tight Oil or LTO supply has been reduced. Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.

Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively. Annual gains of around 400 kb/d in both years are driven exclusively by non-OECD regions. Refining margins reached 12-month highs across most regions and configurations in late April, as a discernible shift in crude pricing boosted profitability.

Global oil stocks rose by 25.1 mb in March, led by a 57.8 mb increase in crude, but at 7 671 mb remained well below the five-year average (-221 mb). Total OECD inventories increased by 3.1 mb, while non-OECD stocks rose by 21.3 mb and oil on water was up slightly by 0.7 mb. Preliminary data show global oil inventories built further in April.

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