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  • The US Energy Information Administration or EIA released its first Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for the year 2021. The January STEO remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity and changes to consumer behavior in response to the COVID-19 pandemic caused energy demand and supply to decline in 2020. The ongoing pandemic and the success of vaccination programs will continue to affect energy use in the future. After falling by 3.5% in 2020, IHS Markit forecasts that US real gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 4.2% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022. Rising GDP contributes to EIAs forecast of rising total energy use in the United States during 2021 and 2022. After falling by 7.8% in 2020, EIA forecasts that total US energy consumption will rise by 2.6% in 2021 and by 2.5% in 2022, reaching 97.3 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), 3.0 quads less than in 2019. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices to average $53 per barrel (b) in both 2021 and 2022 compared with an average of $42/b in 2020.

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