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  • The International Energy Association or IEA noted in its Oil Market Report (OMR) for September that Global oil supply rose by 1.1 million barrels per day or mb/d in August to 91.7 mb/d as OPEC+ cuts eased, but was down 9.3 mb/d on a year ago. Following two months of gains, the recovery in countries outside the OPEC+ deal stalled in August. Production in the United States fell by 0.4 mb/d as Hurricane Laura forced precautionary shut-ins. Total non-OPEC supply is expected to drop by 2.6 mb/d in 2020, before posting a modest 0.5 mb/d recovery next year.

    IEA noted that a resurgence of Covid-19 cases in many countries, local lockdown measures, continued teleworking and the weak aviation sector led to downward revisions of our demand estimates for 3Q20 and 4Q20 by 0.1 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively. For 2020, demand will fall versus 2019 by 8.4 mb/d, more than the 8.1 mb/d seen in the last Report. In 2021, demand will grow by 5.5 mb/d. China continues to recover strongly while India is showing renewed weakness.

    The recovery in global refining throughput is expected to slow from August to October due to the impact of hurricane shutdowns in the US Gulf and seasonal maintenance elsewhere. OECD industry stocks rose by 13.5 mb (0.44 mb/d) to 3 225 mb in July. For the year to July, they have increased by 334.5 mb, at an average rate of 1.57 mb/d.

    IEA noted that the uncertainty created by Covid-19 shows little sign of abating. In Europe, the number of new cases has risen as the holiday season ends, though the rate of hospitalisations and deaths is lower than seen earlier this year. Case numbers in the United States are falling and the situation seems to be improving in Japan and Korea. However, in various places, the situation is worrying and we are seeing localised lockdowns. These developments weigh heavily on economic activity and lead to lower expectations for a recovery in energy demand. Home working reduces demand but fear of using public transport is leading many workers to use personal vehicles.

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